This is a grossly oversimplified but nevertheless interesting piece from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/donald-trump-americans-us-culture-republican

Anyway, one reader correctly pointed out that the nature of our elector college system makes what would be a landslide for Biden into a close race that yes many polls in the 6 states that matter have Trump leading, but the election is still long enough out for much to happen, such as Biden making history in the Middle East https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/opinion/biden-iran-israel.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SE0.xRGs.I75GKD_RUHbJ&bgrp=g&smid=url-share (that's a gift link) and if ther Republicans block immigration reform that everyone wants for political reasons, reclaiming those votes